OK, those whose electoral results would be negatively impacted.
American Election 2024
- Thread starter Sbooker
- Start date
jimk
Active member
No doubt Trump is toxic. I'd much rather see somebody else leading the Republican Party, but there are a lot of Americans that think aspects of the Democratic party are toxic too. Toxic is in the eye of the beholder.
I am interested in JimK's view of Trump's designs upon the Civil Service, since that was his career.
Like Elon. Many people are holding their noses and voting for whomever they think is less toxic.
ShiftyRider
Member
Yes, and also JimK's view on Sbooker's question?
Patrick
Well-known member
Without going into details, and I don’t want to jinx it, but this election might totally shock Admin, but Harris margin of victory might be huge.
Generational change vs an old white guy that can’t stop complaining?
Who better to talk about abortion issue. An 80 old man or a Woman born in the mid 1960s?
Prosecutor vs convicted felon.
Turnout will be high.
Etc.
My track record predicting elections results is pretty good (France, UK so far this year).
(I remember saying that Biden was going to step down 2 weeks prior and probably replaced by Harris)
Generational change vs an old white guy that can’t stop complaining?
Who better to talk about abortion issue. An 80 old man or a Woman born in the mid 1960s?
Prosecutor vs convicted felon.
Turnout will be high.
Etc.
My track record predicting elections results is pretty good (France, UK so far this year).
(I remember saying that Biden was going to step down 2 weeks prior and probably replaced by Harris)
I’ve got a bad record of predicting anything but for what it’s worth I think it will be really close. I can’t see any of the punters that voted for Trump last time not voting for him this time.
ShiftyRider
Member
1. Mike Pence
2. Herman Cain, mail-in voter
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jimk
Active member
Don't like the idea of large numbers of political appointees taking the place of experienced US Govt career civil servants. That sort of thing always happens with new administrations, but not in huge numbers.
Is this upcoming election a bigger deal than past elections? Kinda/sorta, but there's been a lot of hotly contested elections in US history. What's changing is less middle ground, more polarization of folks either left or right.
Are you guys familiar with the history professor who successfully predicts general election results? Looks like he's likely to predict Harris. Here's one article (cited because it didn't have a paywall) on his interesting methodology: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/all...said-on-donald-trump-vs-kamala-harris-6227708
Is this upcoming election a bigger deal than past elections? Kinda/sorta, but there's been a lot of hotly contested elections in US history. What's changing is less middle ground, more polarization of folks either left or right.
Are you guys familiar with the history professor who successfully predicts general election results? Looks like he's likely to predict Harris. Here's one article (cited because it didn't have a paywall) on his interesting methodology: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/all...said-on-donald-trump-vs-kamala-harris-6227708
ShiftyRider
Member
Dunno what persuasion to stake out the middle ground would look like.
What's the middle ground re "Hang Mike Pence"?
To try another way, we all can read and be persuaded that storming the Capitol is less than ideal in a similar sense as protesting that Black Lives Matter went too far when the burning and looting kicked in. But what about the hundreds of Trump flags? Just another episode of The Apprentice? It wasn't 100% based on a lie? Truth doesn't matter?
Figuratively, what's the middle ground of "War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength"?
What's the middle ground re "Hang Mike Pence"?
To try another way, we all can read and be persuaded that storming the Capitol is less than ideal in a similar sense as protesting that Black Lives Matter went too far when the burning and looting kicked in. But what about the hundreds of Trump flags? Just another episode of The Apprentice? It wasn't 100% based on a lie? Truth doesn't matter?
Figuratively, what's the middle ground of "War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength"?
I would agree with that 100%. But everyone who thinks that way was already voting against Trump even if he was running against (Bill Maher quote re: Biden) a head in a jar of formaldehyde. Polling says those
voters are concerned mainly about inflation and the border and that Jan. 6 is ancient history to them.
With regard to Allan Lichtman's 13 keys, I'll do some backtesting. And sometimes the answers to the keys aren't clear cut. While most of us on this thread hate Trump, his support at this point is heavily a cult of personality, so I don't see how Lichtman can say:
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I backtested Lichtman and see significant misses in 1972 and 1988. I think Trump gets a charisma point as an outsider (2016, 2024) but not as an incumbent (2020). This assumption makes both 2016 and 2020 correct. And this same contentious point is the difference between 7 (lose) and 8 (win) on Lichtman's scale for Harris. I'm fairly confident in this assessment. Note that when conventional politicians try to "act Trumpy" (DeSantis, Vance) it does not play well. Only Trump himself can get away with this crap. That's the cult of personality, which is the downside of charisma.
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ShiftyRider
Member
I agree with you that getting shot adds a charisma point, and if you say the "Hang Mike Pence" bobble is okay with most of our neighbors but not us, that's good enough for me. His feelings were hurt, no deduction.
ChrisC
Well-known member
One of the first consulting projects I worked on was for the EPA, which was financing the Clean Water Act—specifically, Clean Drinking Water and Storm Water Management.
My experience with EPA political appointees and Congress itself was somewhat horrific:
EPA. Dealt with a Clinton appointee who kept getting demoted at EPA to lesser and lesser roles. You could not fire him since his family was big Clinton financial backers/donors. I remember when our report to Congrees was done, and supporting financial requests (supporting loans (even negative interest rate loans) vs. one-time grants) were complete....the appointee's contribution was "We NEED Minority Children playing in WATER!"
So, I spent several days tracking down photos with requests "I need Black and Latino children playing in fresh water! No white kids - Zero! Some Asian children might be OK." Felt like the biggest, stupidest racist. Me: This Deputy Director is a total idiot.
Congress: Our findings and recommendations were shared with The House at a Committee on Natural Resources. Most were absent for 50%+ of the time outside of a Democratic Minority Chair. The only memorable moment was the Majority Chair - Dick Armey (R-TX) came in and yelled during his Q&A period/time: "I do not want to listen to any of this! Until EPA tells me how I can build a pipeline from this location to this location in my district, I'm done!"
So, there was no Clean Water Act Reauthorization & Funding that year - despite the record number of minority children in the report! And financial models that made Clean Drinking water self-funding based on community/city wealth/ability to pay.
I worked on a few more private sector consulting projects and then moved to the West Coast from the Boston-Washington corridor. I can't imagine a career in Washington, D.C.
ShiftyRider
Member
Did you tell them that when Madison Avenue (and the political equivalent) is driven by market research and focus groups, sometimes that acts to exclude common sense? I can't remember the GOP lawmaker that was going on about how wonderful it was that Asian Americans aren't raising a ruckus. As if he was saying "lotsa the majority hates them too, but they seem to be doing okay".
Well, here we are. Trump wants people with Sanskrit-origin names like Kamala Harris and Vivek Vance to know their place. And JD Vance is okay with that.
This is unfortunately the kind of foolishness that gives traction to the Trumps of the world. And also which is why
And some who should know better like Elon believe the Democrats are more toxic. Harris has a very heavy lift trying to persuade any of those people.
ShiftyRider
Member
ShiftyRider to the batphone.
Title: Project 2024
Subtitle: Kamala's identity no longer in question
Scene 1: the parking lot at Costco...
Exhibit 354 of how Democrats are unable to take advantage of the easiest stump-speech material = Agent Orange is the GOP's first non-white presidential candidate.
Ok. I'll admit it. I'm entertained by childish humour.
Should I be concerned that a sharemarket correction in the lead up to the election might tip some voters into going for the red team come November 5?
And related to the above question. Are there any other sharemarket investors on here? I understand everyone will own stocks indirectly through superannuation accounts (you call it 401k I believe).
I’m cheering for a big sharemarket implosion so I can put some hard earned cash to work at bargain - or at least reasonable - prices.
The above following a 2 percent fall yesterday.
And related to the above question. Are there any other sharemarket investors on here? I understand everyone will own stocks indirectly through superannuation accounts (you call it 401k I believe).
I’m cheering for a big sharemarket implosion so I can put some hard earned cash to work at bargain - or at least reasonable - prices.
The above following a 2 percent fall yesterday.
If you favor the blue you are probably more concerned that the fed is a little bit behind the eight ball on rates. Job growth looks to be slowing. Understandably the fed wants to see two low inflation numbers in a row. The job they have isn't easy.